France goes down, its nuclear weapons, and China

So France is going belly up. Kaput. Thankfully not after a civil war, the strife is more on the political side, though a few unfortunately died in some of the riots. But after regions like Corsica, Brittany and Provence unilaterally declared independence, after Paris declared a real Commune in defiance of the government, and Versailles, the usual fallback, did not seem safe either, it became clear there was no way out but eventual dissolution of the old, proud French Republic state; much like the USSR dissolved in 1991, but without an equivalent of Russia to pick up the main pieces, the Paris Commune being seen as too unstable.

Among the numerous geopolitical problems this raised, one stood out. Among its armed forces, the French Republic had under its control several nuclear warheads, the missiles to carry them, and a fleet of submarines to launch them. Legitimately terrified that these weapons could fall under the hands of a rogue state or terrorist group, the international community sustained the French government long enough for it to organize a liquidation sale of its nuclear armament and other strategic assets. But Russia certainly wasn’t going to let the USA buy them, an neither were the USA willing to see Russia get them. Realizing that making sure these weapons didn’t fall in the wrong hands was more important than for either party to take control of them itself, Russia, the USA, and a few other countries like India, the United Kingdom, etc. formed a coalition and jointly bid, and won, the dangerous arsenal.

Though they agreed on a few principles before making this alliance, it was considered urgent to get control of the arsenal in the first place, and at the time the sale was closed the coalition had not agreed on what to do with those weapons. But most geopolitical observers and analysts agreed that the coalition would end up keeping the weapons around just in case, but inactive and offline, and that was if they were not just going to disband them outright; after all, for them to be used would require joint agreement of all parties, an agreement that was extremely unlikely to be ever reached.

But China suddenly started publicly complaining that the members of the coalition were engaged in a conspiracy against it, citing military interventions from some of the coalition members in foreign countries, various international disagreements, and now this France liquidation sale (China did not take part in the coalition, it made, with one ally, a separate bid for these weapons but was eventually outbid by the coalition). Observers, however, were skeptical: these events did not seem connected in any way except for the fact of being mentioned together in that communiqué; plus, as if the joint ownership didn’t already ensure at least immobilization by bureaucracy, the coalition includes one partner of China: Brazil. And the fact the coalition spent quite a bit of money to acquire this arsenal, more than some initial estimates, probably only reflected the importance of keeping them out of the wrong hands, given the unstable international landscape, what with rogue states, terrorist groups, less than trustworthy states gaining importance, etc. Not to mention China itself bid rather high in that auction.

In the end it is suspected that, while Chinese officials may believe this conspiracy theory themselves, these complaints made in public view were actually intended to fire up nationalism in the country, or even better, in the whole east Asia.

The saga, unsurprisingly, didn’t stop there: Russia answered, read all about it in the followup. – August 5, 2011